Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012
Our free pick was a winner in the AFC championship game as the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots played under the total.
It’s Super Bowl Sunday as the New York Giants will take the field to play the New England Patriots.
Start time from Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis Indiana is slated for 6:30PM Eastern Time and you can watch it on NBC.
Our Best Bet free Super Bowl Prop will be playing New England Patriots running back Danny Woodhead to have over 12 ½ receiving yards at -115 odds.
I expect to see Patriots head coach Bill Belichick attack this Giants defense using many of the tactics we have seen Andy Reid accomplish in his years with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Expect to see the Patriots dump the screen passes to Woodhead in the Super Bowl much like we used to see Andy Reid attack the Giants pass rush with those screen passes to Brian Westbrook. What that does is freezes the New York pass rushers. Woodhead is a good open field runner who will gain yardage after the catch with his mobility on the fast track.
Danny Woodhead over the total number of 1 ½ pass receptions @ -110 odds.
As we wrote above Woodhead is a weapon in the open field and someone who can find that sweet spot over the middle against the Giants interior line for short dump passes. He is also a good target in the two minute offense for Tom Brady to move the team into field goal possession near the end of the half.
New England quarterback Tom Brady over 25 ½ pass completions at -130 odds.
One thing you know about the Patriots is they will pass the football behind or ahead as you saw in their blowout win against the Denver Broncos in the divisional round. That has been their attack even during the regular season. I expect to see the Patriots run the no huddle offense and go quick in this game to increase the number of possessions and wear out this New York Giants defense.
The no huddle will not allow the Giants to make defensive substitutions and will increase the number of plays in this game which greatly aids our cause for Tom Brady to have 26 completions. I got the feeling after the AFC championship game that Belichick and Brady were not happy with their performance. Tom Brady is a bounce back quarterback as you seldom see him have back to back poor games.
Total number of receiving yards by Deion Branch over 42 ½ yards at -115 odds.
Deion Branch is a Super Bowl MVP receiver. The New York Giants secondary is bit slow footed and that will be magnified on the fast playing surface in Indianapolis. We have seen the Giants struggle big time defensively in dome stadiums on the fast track this season giving up over 37 points per game in games at Arizona, Dallas and New Orleans. We saw Vernon Davis a tight end for the San Francisco 49ers get behind the Giants secondary for two touchdown passing plays in the NFC championship game.
Longest Reception by Deion Branch to be over 17 ½ yards at -115 odds.
With the dink and dunk attack by New England utilizing the short passing game underneath the Giants coverage, this will open up plays downfield for Branch for big gains. Brady loves going vertical to Branch. Expect to see pump fakes by Brady faking out defenders short and going deep to Branch.
Total Receptions by Deion Branch in the Super Bowl to be over 3 at -130 odds.
We have the no huddle approach increasing offensive plays for New England as well as a Patriots team who will throw for just about the entire game up big or down big so we like our chances for Branch here to get open against the Giants secondary on this fast track of Indy.
Tags: betting odds, new york giants versus new england patriots, super bowl 46 free betting props picks
