New England Patriots NFL Pro Football 2010 Regular Season Win Betting Odds Projection

Published on July 19, 2010 by admin · No Comments

The 2009 New England Patriots closed the regular season with a 10-6 record and finished in 1st place in the AFC East and earning a first round bye in the playoffs.

It was a quick exit from the post season for the Patriots as the club were routed by the Baltimore Ravens 33-14 in the AFC Divisional round.

Tom Brady returned to his starting role after missing most of the 2008 season due to knee surgery. The Patriots were 3rd in the NFL in passing with an average of 277.3 yards through the air last season. The club was 3rd in the NFL in total offense with 397.3 yards per game.

With only 31 sacks in 2009 the New England Patriots defense ranked 23rd in the league and must bring more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The Patriots allowed 34 or more points on three occasions during the regular season and all resulted in losses to the Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans who possessed outstanding passing attacks.

The Patriots first round draft pick was cornerback Devin McCourty from Rutgers. Three of the first four Patriots picks came on the defensive side of the ball.

The Odds:

The New England Patriots 2010 season win projection has been set by Bodog sportsbook at 9 ½ wins with over favored at -130 odds and the under bringing back +100.

The Patriots have been set at 12-1 odds by Bodog to win Super Bowl XLV.

Bodog has lined New England at 6-1 odds to win the AFC Championship and are co favorites with the New York Jets at +130 odds to win the AFC East.

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2010 New England Patriots Regular Season Schedule:

The AFC East is where New England plays so that will bring a home game and a road game against the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.

The AFC East division plays in 2010 the AFC North and NFC North.

The AFC North opponents for New England in 2010 will be home games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens with road games at the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns.

The Patriots NFC North opponents will be the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers at home with road trips to the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears.

New England’s first place finish in the AFC East in 2009 means they will play against the two other AFC first place squads so that will bring a home game against the Indianapolis Colts and a road trip to the San Diego Chargers.

New England will be featured in four prime time high profile games in 2010. The team will host the New York Jets on Monday night football and host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. The club will hit the highway on Monday night football against the Miami Dolphins and a Sunday night road trip at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Patriots will be on a short week on Thanksgiving Day as they must take the trip to Detroit following their week 11 home game against Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

New England does get a break from the schedule maker in 2010 as they only play 1 set of back to back road games as in week 9 they are at Cleveland and in week 10 at Pittsburgh.

The 2010 regular season schedule also brings no back to back weeks playing at home.

Offense:

Tom Brady will enter the second year removed from his 2008 season knee ligament surgery. Brady’s injury usually requires two years to fully heal so I expect Brady to have more strength behind his throws and a bit more mobility in 2010.

Still Brady was able to complete 65.7% of his passes for 4398 yards 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

The issue in 2009 for the offense was the teams red zone execution because the receiver talent did not play to expectations with a touchdown just 52.3% inside the opponents 20 yard line for 13th in the league. That’s not acceptable for this bunch.

The club averaged 120 yards on the ground last season ranking 13th in the league. The team uses a running back by committee approach with veterans Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor returning for another season together. Kevin Faulk can be still counted on third downs. Maroney needs to be better than the 3.9 yards a carry average he produced in 2009 on 194 carries.

The teams number 1 and 2 wide receiver on the depth chart is Randy Moss and Wes Welker with Torry Holt and Julian Edelman the #3 and 4. Welker led the club with 123 catches last season for 1384 yards and 4 touchdowns before going down with a torn ACL and MCL in week 17 against the Jaguars.

Welker faces a difficult rehab from his injury and even if he makes the Patriots lineup the question will be if he will be at full strength and quickness out of the blocks or will he need at least another year until 2011 to get to 100%.

Moss had 83 catches last year for a 15.2 yards per reception average and 13 touchdowns. Moss was under some scrutiny last season for possibly not going all out on plays that were not going his way and giving up on passes that appeared to have needed Moss to stretch to get to.

The question is if Welker is sidelined will this impact the 33 year old receivers ability to get open as teams focus their attention on him? With the pressure to make catches this could be Moss’ breaking point especially in the final year of a contract.

Julian Edelman saw action last season and contributed with 37 catches for a 9.7 yards per catch average and 1 touchdown. The question for Torry Holt is how much does the 34 year old have left in his legs to get open? He had 51 catches last season for Jacksonville with 0 touchdowns but a pretty good 14.2 yards per reception average.

At tight end the team signed veteran Alge Crumpler from the Titans. The 10 year veteran had just 27 catches for Vince Young and the Tennessee Titans last season with only 1 touchdown. He replaces Benjamin Watson who was signed by Cleveland in free agency. Rob Gronkowski from the University of Arizona and Aaron Hernandez from Florida were drafted by the club to provide depth at the position.

New England has a veteran offensive line with Dan Koppen at center with Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal at guards. The tackles are Matt Light and Nick Kaczur. The squad enters their 5th straight season as an intact unit.

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Defense:

New England runs a 3-4 defense with Vince Wilfork at nose tackle and he will be flanked by tackles Ty Warren and Mike Wright. The team added depth with Florida defensive end Jermaine Cunningham drafted in the second round. The Patriots were 13th against the run in 2009 allowing 110.5 yards per game and a 4.4 yards per carry average.

The linebackers will feature Jerod Mayo and Gary Guyton or draft pick Brandon Spikes on the inside. Tully Banta-Cain and Pierre Woods to the pass rushing outside.

Adalius Thomas was released by the Patriots in the off season and he had difficulty running down backs cutting to the outside. Banta-Cain led the squad in 2009 with 10 sacks.

Jerod Mayo was hampered by a sprained MCL on his knee. The prognosis of healthy Jerod Mayo coupled with second round pick Brandon Spikes is pretty darn good to stuff the run up the middle and to run down backs running wide around the tackles.

The secondary shapes up with Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden manning the corners with Brandon Meriweather and Brandon McGowan at safeties. The Pats were 12th against the pass last season giving up 209.7 yards a game. Cornerback Devin McCourty was the clubs first round draft pick out of Rutgers to provide depth.

And now to my Selection:

Tom Brady will regain full strength and mobility in his 2008 knee which will help the veteran quarterback find the necessary velocity to zip his passes into coverage and hit his receivers in stride. Too many drives stalled in 2009 for the talent level on offense and look for a rebound.

Alge Crumpler will contribute and will turn out to be a positive signing for the Patriots as Brady will find a big target in red zone situations.

Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes will gel very well together in the inside linebacker position as the club will better defending runs to the outside. New England gets to at least 10 wins in 2010.

Selection: Play Over 9 ½ wins in 2010 Regular Season.