Saturday, February 4th, 2012
Bret Favre and the Minnesota Vikings will hit the highway in the NFC Championship game against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night in prime time. Kick off time at the Superdome in New Orleans is scheduled for 6:40PM Eastern Time with national television coverage provided by Fox.
The LVSC NFL odds makers have set the opening point spread in this game and the home team New Orleans Saints were opened as a 3 ½ point favorite with the over under coming in at 52 ½.
The early money from the NFL betting public has been home favorite money, as the New Orleans Saints are currently a 4-½ point favorite. The total has seen early movement in the betting towards the over, as the over under is currently lined at 53 for the NFL betting public to play into.
NFL money line gamblers can make a play on the favored New Orleans Saints at –205 with Bret Favre and the road team Minnesota Vikings returning +175 to pull off the straight up upset victory without the point spread a factor in the money line bet.
The New Orleans Saints following their three game losing streak to close out the regular season responded in their first playoff game in their NFC Divisional game with a dominating 45-14 home victory over the Arizona Cardinals. The Saints torched the Cardinals defense with 171 yards rushing and 247 yards through the air. The Saints shut out the Cardinals in the second half. New Orleans stormed out to a 35-14 lead at the break and coasted home for victory.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees responded with a 23 of 32 passing performance last week for 247 yards three touchdowns and no interceptions in victory. Most of these numbers came through three quarters as the Saints opted to run in the fourth quarter to run out the clock. On the season Brees completed on over 70% of his passes for 34 touchdowns and 11 picks.
The Saints are undefeated with tight end Jeremy Shockey in the lineup this season. Shockey had been bothered by a toe injury that forced the pass catching tight end to miss the last three regular season games. He had three catches for 36 yards and a touchdown catch against the Cardinals last week.
The Saints got a huge game out of Reggie Bush last week as the veteran back rushed 5 times for 84 yards and a touchdown last week. He also contributed with 4 receptions for 24 yards. Bush has ran the ball very effectively down the stretch with no less than a 5.5 yards per carry average over his past 5 games. He is a huge weapon in the passing game coming out of the backfield matched up at times against linebackers. When Reggie is in space he is a huge threat for a big play. The Vikings secondary has been very poor this season tackling receivers downfield and it could lead to more big plays from this Saints offense and Bush stands to be a key in this game.
Pierre Thomas put up great numbers this season in the backfield for New Orleans with 5.4 yards a carry average on 147 rushing attempts. He responded with 52 yards on the ground on 13 carries last week.
The Saints defense was hit with injuries throughout the regular season. They allowed nearly 21 points per game. Their secondary was torched during the season allowing 236 yards passing per game and ranking 26th in the NFL. But in their NFC Divisional playoff game against the Cardinals the Saints were healthy on defense. They limited an explosive Arizona Cardinals offense led by Kurt Warner to just 14 points and two turnovers. They took advantage of their noisy crowd by allowing Arizona to convert on only 1 of 9 on third and fourth down combined. They put good pressure on Warner last week, which resulted in pass incompletions and turnovers.
The Minnesota Vikings enter the NFC Championship game off their 34-3 home victory over the Dallas Cowboys. They dominated the Cowboys pressuring Tony Romo with 6 sacks and earning a +3 turnover margin in the game. The Vikings defense was outstanding with 11 tackles for losses against Dallas. They were able to shut down the Cowboys running game allowing just 92 yards on 25 carries. But a huge negative in this game has been the play of the Vikings on the road. The Vikings did not handle noisy stadiums very well as they were pounded by Carolina, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Arizona on the highway in 2009.
Minnesota quarterback Bret Favre had an outstanding game last week hitting on 15 of 24 passes for 234 yards 4 touchdowns and no picks. The big play was working for Favre. On the season Favre hit on 68% of his passes with 33 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. Five of the Vikings signal callers interceptions came on the road.
Running back Adrian Peterson was heavily used in their playoff game last week with 26 carries for only 63 yards for a miniscule 2.4 yards a carry average. Peterson has had only 3 games over 100 yards in the entire season. The running back could only average 4.4 yards a carry this season. Another troubling stat is the fact Peterson has just 1 game better than 3.9 yards per carry in his past 7 games. With Peterson not producing it could put Favre in passing situations that does not bode well in dome stadiums on the road in an NFC Championship situation. The Saints will be able to pin their ears and bring heavy pressure. The Vikings offensive line did not do well in these situations. The Vikings only went to Chester Taylor four times last week in the running game and he netted 23 yards. On the season Taylor could only average 3.6 yards a carry. Both Peterson and Taylor performed well below their career averages in the 2009 season. It will be very difficult for the Vikings to win in this hostile environment without the contributions from their run game.
Defensively the Vikings allow over 18 points per game. They have not been a good defense on the highway this season allowing 23 ½ points per game. The Viking road defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete over 62% of their passes. The Vikings were playing meaningful road games down the stretch and were torched in their last three road contests allowing 30 points to Arizona, 26 to Carolina and 36 to Chicago.
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NFL Trend: Minnesota Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their past 5 road games
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