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Published: October 21, 2009
The Green Bay Packers will hit the highway in an NFL contest against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon. Kick off time in Cleveland is set for 1PM Eastern Time with regional television coverage provided by Fox. The LVSC NFL odds makers have set the opening point spread in this game and the Green Bay Packers opened as a 7 point favorite with the over under coming in at 41. The early money from the NFL betting public has been road favorite money, as the Green Bay Packers are currently an 8 point favorite. The over under has been bet early by the sports betting public towards the over, as the current total is lined at 42. NFL money line bettors who would like to make a play on the favored Green Bay Packers will find the favorite lined at –300 with the home underdog Cleveland Browns returning +250 to pull off the upset victory with no need for points on their side.
Green Bay is coming off a 26-0 win home to Detroit last week as Aaron Rodgers passed for 328 yards last week in victory. The Green Bay defense was outstanding limiting the Lions to just 78 rushing yards and 71 through the air. These are back-to-back games where the Green Bay Packers have allowed less than 100 yards rushing to their opponents, as their Achilles heel last year was their rush defense. The issue on offense for the Green Bay Packers has been their pass protection as Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 5 times this season. In 5 games this season Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 25 times. That is way too much. At issue also is the fact the Green Bay running game has sputtered as Ryan Grant has struggled to only an average of 3.8 yards per carry on 91 rushing attempts. Because of an inept running game the Packers have rushed 105 times and passed 164 times on the season. The Packers throw way too many times and teams are pinning their ears and coming at Rodgers. Ben Roethlisberger torched the Browns in the passing game as he threw for 403 yards on just 23 completions last week. The Steelers were also able to gain 140 yards on the ground so the 27-14 score doesn’t reflect how badly outplayed the Browns were in the game as Pittsburgh gave them 4 turnovers. Browns starting quarterback Derek Anderson has struggled hitting on just 11 of 41 over his past two games with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Veteran running back Jamal Lewis has been inconsistent rushing for 233 yards on 67 rushing attempts for 3.5 yards per play average.
Tony T’s Opinion: Green Bay’s past two performances on defense has improved. But this is a team that still allows 4.6 yards per carry on the ground. If Jamal Lewis can come up good this week the Browns could be competitive at home and getting the points could seem the way to play. But the Browns secondary cannot be trusted. The team gave up 24 to Minnesota, 34 to Baltimore and 27 to Denver so you have to believe the Packers offense will be able to generate a good point total in Cleveland through the air. If this game does make my card I may look to play over the total so long as it does not creep up over 42. Also if this game makes my card I wont make this play until game day to ensure good passing weather conditions in Cleveland. If the weather comes up bad and the teams will need to run more than pass than Cleveland taking the points becomes an attractive play.
For the Latest NFL Odds Please Visit our NFL Odds Page
NFL Trend: Green Bay Packers are 12-4 to the over in their past 16 road games
The Wagerline consensus has 80.6% of the NFL bettors on Green Bay -8
The Wagerline consensus has 55.6% the NFL bettors playing over 42
